Chronicle on Cuba - July 2008

Security

July 21: Russia may start regular flights by long-range bombers to Cuba in response to US plans to build missile defence sites in Eastern Europe, the newspaper Izvestia reported, quoting an unidentified “highly placed source.'' Both the supersonic Tu-160, a nuclear bomber known as “White Swan”, and the strategic bomber Tu-95, known to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization as the “Bear”, are capable of flying as far as Cuba, the paper said. “There are such discussions, but they're only discussions,'' the paper cited a “highly placed” source on the staff of Russia's long-distance strategic aviation command as saying. “I'm not going to say that there’s nothing behind” the talks. Russian military transport aircraft regularly fly to Cuba, the paper said, carrying out orders for private companies. The measure would be a response to the United States "deploying missile defence systems in Poland and the Czech Republic." It was not clear whether the official meant permanently basing the bombers in Cuba or using the island as a refuelling stop, but former top defence ministry official Leonid Ivashov told the newspaper that Cuba was best used for brief stopovers. Cuba should be used "not as a permanent base, this is unnecessary, but as a stopover airfield, a refuelling stop," Ivashov was quoted as saying (AFP, Bloomberg, 21/7/08).

July 21: Russian Defence Ministry officials poured cold water on a newspaper report that suggested Moscow could use Cuba as a refuelling base for nuclear-capable bombers. Izvestia newspaper quoted a "highly placed source" as saying Russia could land Tu-160 supersonic bombers in Cuba as a response to a planned US missile defence shield in Europe which Moscow opposes. The Kremlin declined immediate comment. The Defence Ministry questioned the story, saying it was written under a false name and quoted a source at an organization that did not exist. "Were our strategic bombers ever deployed in Cuba before?" a Defence Ministry official asked when contacted by the press by telephone and asked whether bombers would be "returning" to the Caribbean island, 150 kilometres from the US coast. Izvestia editor-in-chief Vladimir Mamontov stood by the story and said several of his journalists had worked under pseudonyms because of the story's sensitivity. "The first remark was really made by a very competent person," Mamontov told the press. Some Russian experts dismissed the possibility of a new Cuban crisis. "It's very silly psychological warfare," said Alexander Golts, an independent military analyst, in a telephone interview. "Putin and Medvedev are very militant in words but very cautious in practical issues. They have not taken any step that can be seen as a real threat to the West, and I cannot see any reason to raise this threat against the US. But if it's true, it looks like a repetition of the Caribbean crisis" he said, using the common Russian term for the Cuban missile crisis (Reuters, The Washington Post, 21/7/08).

July 22: Russia would cross "a red-line for the United States of America" if it were to base nuclear-capable bombers in Cuba, a top US air force officer warned. "If they did I think we should stand strong and indicate that is something that crosses a threshold, crosses a red line for the United States of America," said General Norton Schwartz, nominated to be the air force's chief of staff. He was referring to a news report in Russian newspaper Izvestia that said the military is thinking of flying long-range bombers to Cuba, and possibly establishing a base there (AFP, 22/7/08).

July 22: The White House declined to comment on a news report that Russia may start regular bomber flights to Cuba in response to US plans for missile defence sites in Eastern Europe. "I don't think there have been any reports from, official response from, the (Russian) government, so I wouldn't comment on it," spokeswoman Dana Perino told reporters. But US President George W. Bush told Russian President Dmitry Medvedev just two weeks ago that the planned US missile shield poses no threat to Russia, the spokeswoman said. "The president repeated that our missile defence system should not be seen as a threat to Russia, we want to actually work with the Russians to design a system that Russia, and Europe and the United States could work on together as equal partners and we'll continue to do that," she said (AFP, 22/7/08).

July 23: Russian experts think that the reaction of General Norton Schwartz, nominated to be the chief of staff of the US Air Force, to potential appearance of Russian strategic bombers in Cuba was "inappropriate". "Russian strategic bombers have the right to use airfields in any country, including Cuba, if the leadership of that country does not object. Therefore, General Schwarz' statement can only be described as inappropriate and childish," Anatoliy Kornukov, former commander-in-chief of the Air-Force, told Interfax AVN. At the same time, Kornukov doubts that permanent presence of Russian strategic bombers in Cuba is expedient from the military point of view. For his part, the former commander of the long-range (strategic) aviation of the Russian Air Force, Lt-General Mikhail Oparin, also expressed surprise at General Schwartz's "inappropriate reaction" to the reports about a possible use of airfields in Cuba by Russian strategic missile carriers. "First, no one has said that our long-range aviation targets facilities on the territory of the USA. On the other hand, the existing Russian-American agreements on strategic arms do not bar Russia from stepping up the capabilities of its combat aviation systems," Oparin told Interfax-AVN. "The use of airfields in Cuba as forward staging bases, or to base our refuelling aircraft to provide support to our strategic missile carriers, could substantially increase the capabilities of our combat systems in terms of reaching remote military-geographic areas," M. Oparin said. The president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, described Schwartz' statement as blackmail of Russia (Interfax-AVN, 23/7/08).

July 24: Russian crews landed in Cuba to prepare for stationing nuclear bombers there in defiance of a US warning not to cross a “red line,'' Izvestia reported, citing unidentified Russian Defence Ministry officials. Crews of a supersonic Tu-160, a nuclear bomber, and a Tu-95, which the North Atlantic Treaty Organization dubs the “Bear”, were on the island nation doing reconnaissance work and inspecting infrastructure, the Moscow-based newspaper said. Bombers can be deployed to bases in Cuba, Venezuela or Algeria at any time, Izvestia said. General Norton Schwartz, nominated to be US Air Force chief of staff, warned Russia two days ago not to station bombers in Cuba in response to America's decision to build a missile defence system in former Soviet satellite states in Europe (Bloomberg, 24/7/08).

July 24: Fidel Castro said Havana owed no apologies to Washington over reports that Russia might start flying long-range bombers to Cuba, and warned that his country "had nerves of steel in times of genocide." It was the first official comment from Cuba since a US general responded to a report in a Russian newspaper, warning Russia against basing nuclear-capable bombers in Cuba. "What we need are nerves of steel in times of genocide, and Cuba has them. The United States knows that," he wrote, in what appeared to be a reference to previous Cold War-era confrontations between the two countries. The ailing Fidel Castro, 81, who in February handed over power to his 77-year-old brother Raul, made his comments in a letter to the official online Cubadebate.cu. "Raul did just the right thing by maintaining appropriate silence on statements published Monday, July 21 by Izvestia, related to the potential installation of strategic Russian bomber bases in our country," he wrote (La estrategia de Maquiavelo; AFP, 24/7/08).

July 24: The Russian Defence Ministry has denied a newspaper report that Russia was considering basing nuclear-capable bombers in Cuba, Russian news agencies reported. The newspaper Izvestia this week cited an anonymous top air force official as saying the bombers could be based in Cuba as a response to US plans to place elements of a missile defence system in Eastern European countries. Defence Ministry spokesman Ilshat Baichurin dismissed the report, according to the Interfax and RIA-Novosti news agencies. ''We see this sort of anonymous allegation as disinformation and another media hoax,'' he was quoted as saying (AP, 24/7/08).

July 30: The flap over the possibility of Russian nuclear bombers deploying to Cuba appears to be over. It ended the way it began: with an article in the leading Russian newspaper Izvestia, said to be close to influential circles in Moscow. An editorial the newspaper published late last week acknowledged the editors had been ''misinformed'' about the potential deployment in Cuba of Russian nuclear-capable strategic bombers. The editorial appeared after a Russian defence ministry spokesman branded the original July 21 report in Izvestia a “media hoax.'' That report sparked a flurry of speculation about whether the White House and the Kremlin were headed for a new Cold War-style showdown similar to the one in 1962. The newspaper said it trusted the source because “when politicians reach a certain level, they seldom make ‘idle' comments.'' Besides, the editorial noted, the source spoke ''in the presence of a sufficiently large number of people'' and the daily contacted officials who suggested the original tip was not “groundless'' (The Miami Herald, 31/7/08).